According to data released by the China National Textile and Apparel Council on the 12th, the prosperity index of my country's textile industry rose steadily in the first three quarters of this year, and the domestic and international textile and apparel markets achieved rapid growth.
From January to September this year , the national retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats and knitting textiles above designated size increased by 1.7 % over the same period last year , at a relatively high level of growth in the past three years. In particular, emerging businesses maintained rapid growth. The growth rate of retail sales of online clothing products nationwide was 4.1 % higher than the same period last year . In addition, from January to September , China’s cumulative export of textiles and apparel was US$ 207.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% , especially for countries along the “Belt and Road” and African countries.
Sun Ruizhe , chairman of the China National Textile and Apparel Council, said that after 40 years of reform and opening up, the textile and apparel industry is no longer an export-oriented economy in the traditional sense. More than 80% of our total output value is used in the domestic market. In recent years, the progress in the markets along the “Belt and Road” has also been very good. Since last year, our textile and garment industry's exports have re-entered positive growth. As long as we make a rational analysis of the market, the textile and garment industry itself should be Have confidence.
Since 2018, the world economy has maintained a recovery track, market demand has been relatively strong, and the international and domestic textile and apparel markets have achieved rapid growth, supporting the smooth operation of the textile industry. The supply-side reform of the textile industry has continued to advance, the relationship between supply and demand has improved, the sales format has continued to innovate, the quality of development has been steadily improved, and the main indicators have shown a monthly callback trend. Looking forward to the whole year, the textile industry is expected to maintain stable operation under the support of domestic consumption and transformation, but a series of external pressures such as cost and environmental protection still need to be overcome. Trade frictions need to be properly dealt with. The industry accelerates the promotion of high-quality development and enhances the ability to resist risks. The task is more urgent.
Rapid growth in market sales
Outstanding contribution from domestic consumption
Both the old and new formats of the domestic market accelerated. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of 2018, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents increased by 6.6% in real terms, and consumption expenditure increased by 6.3% in real terms, both faster than the growth rate of per capita GDP of 6.2%, and the consumption contribution rate increased to 78%. Daily consumer goods closely related to people's livelihood are the main driving force for domestic demand growth. The sales of textile and apparel products in the traditional format were better than that of the previous year. From January to September, the national retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats and knitting textiles above designated size increased by 8.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 1.7 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. The level of growth. Emerging business formats maintained rapid growth. The national retail sales of online clothing products increased by 23.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
Figure 1: Domestic sales growth in the textile industry
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
The export market continued to pick up. According to Customs Express data, from January to September, my country’s total textile and apparel exports (excluding Chapter 94) were US$207.77 billion, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.7% from the same period last year, and continued to accelerate by 1.3% from the first half of this year. . In terms of product structure, the competitiveness of textiles is stable. The export value increased by 10.5% year-on-year, which was 7.6 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The proportion of total exports increased to 43%; clothing was affected by high manufacturing costs, orders, and investment transfers. , The export pressure is relatively high, the export value from January to September only increased by 0.6% year-on-year. By country, the export value of textile materials, textile and clothing to the United States, the European Union and Japan increased by 8.5%, 3.4% and 4.8% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate of exports to the United States increased by 9.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year; to Vietnam, Turkey, and Indonesia The export growth of markets along the “Belt and Road” is good, with export volume increasing by 30%, 5.7% and 21.6% year-on-year respectively.
Figure 2: Growth of textile and apparel exports
Data source: China Customs
Steady improvement in quality and efficiency
Supply-side reforms show results
Economic benefits continued to improve month-on-month. From January to September, 36,000 textile enterprises above designated size across the country achieved a total of 4,219.76 billion yuan in main business income, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed by 3.5 percentage points from the same period last year, but accelerated by 0.1 percentage points from the first half of this year; The total profit achieved was 198.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and the growth rate slowed by 3.5 percentage points from the same period last year, but was higher than the growth rate of 4.7 percentage points in the first half of this year. From the perspective of the industrial chain structure, due to the increase in industrial concentration and the extension of large enterprises to the upstream refining and chemical links in the chemical fiber industry, the profit growth rate has stabilized in a relatively high range. The main business revenue and total profit increased by 14.4 year-on-year from January to September. % And 22.3%, respectively driving the main business revenue and profit growth of the textile industry by 2 and 3.2 percentage points.
Figure 3: Main business revenue and profit growth of textile industry
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
The running quality is relatively stable. From January to September, the sales profit rate of textile enterprises above designated size was 4.7%, an increase of 0.1% over the same period of the previous year; the total asset turnover rate was 1.3 times per year, and the ratio of three expenses was 6.9%, basically the same as the same period last year.
Production maintains low growth, investment growth continues to pick up
The utilization of production capacity remained at a relatively high level, and the growth rate of production slowed down. From January to September, the capacity utilization rate of the textile and chemical fiber industries reached 80.6% and 82%, respectively, which were both higher than the national industrial level of 76.6%. From January to September, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size across the country increased by 2.9% year-on-year, a slowdown of 2 percentage points from the same period last year, but an acceleration of 0.1 percentage points from the first half of the year. The growth rate of terminal production in the industrial chain was relatively stable. The industrial added value of apparel, home textiles and industrial textiles increased by 4.6%, 4.9% and 8.4% respectively year-on-year; the production of capital and technology-intensive industries grew faster, and the industrial added value of the chemical fiber industry increased year-on-year. 8.2%, an acceleration of 2.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the industrial added value of the textile machinery industry increased by 12.5% year-on-year, reflecting the steady improvement of domestic equipment market competitiveness.
Investment growth has picked up month by month. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total fixed asset investment in the textile industry from January to September increased by 5.8% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year, but rose 9.1 and 4.5 percentage points from the first quarter and first half of this year, respectively. In terms of industries, the growth rate of the textile industry (including spinning, weaving, dyeing and finishing, knitting, home textiles, and industrial use) increased by 5.1 percentage points from the first half to 5.9%, and the chemical fiber industry increased by 31.9% year-on-year, maintaining a high speed for 6 consecutive months Growth, while investment in the apparel industry decreased by 1.6% year-on-year.
Macroeconomic environment is generally stable and downside risks cannot be ignored
Looking ahead, the world economy will still be on the path of recovery. However, the negative impact of risk factors such as liquidity contraction caused by the US dollar interest rate increase and US trade protectionism will gradually appear on the global economic growth. The latest report released by the IMF in October will show the global economy in 2019. The growth rate forecast has been lowered to 3.7% from the previous 3.9%, and the growth of international market demand has shown a slowing trend. Affected by changes in the external environment, my country's macroeconomic operation pressure will increase, but the general trend of stable development will not fundamentally change. The country strengthens stable employment, and the income and consumption levels of residents move towards an overall well-off level, which will support the domestic textile and apparel market Continuous growth has become the absolute main force driving the development of the textile industry. The Sino-US trade friction is escalating. Although the direct negative impact of the US tax increase measures on the textile industry at this stage is small, the uncertainty of the trade environment has increased, increasing the worries of international buyers and domestic manufacturers. In addition, factors such as rising factor costs, increasing environmental pressures, and financing difficulties and expensive financing will continue to affect the operation of the industry, and textile companies still need to strengthen their response.
For the whole year of 2018, the textile industry will continue to maintain the current stable operation trend, and the main operating indicators will basically maintain the current growth level. In 2019, the domestic and international market environment faced by my country's textile industry is steadily changing. The operating pressure of the textile industry will increase compared with this year. The uncertainty of the export situation will increase. The industry's internal needs to promote high-quality development are more urgent and must be focused. Only by improving production efficiency and anti-risk ability can we continue to maintain a stable development trend.