Original link: http://www.cnita.org.cn/ch/newsdetail.aspx?ids=27_2700

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 19, preliminary calculations showed that the gross domestic product in the first three quarters was 65,088.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% at comparable prices; the growth rate in the first half of the year was 6.8%. In quarterly terms, the first quarter increased by 6.8% year-on-year, the second quarter increased by 6.7%, and the third quarter increased by 6.5%.

The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, Mao Shengyong, introduced the performance of the national economy in the first three quarters of 2018, and pointed out that, in general, the national economy operated within a reasonable range in the first three quarters, maintaining an overall stable and steady progress. At the same time, we must also see that the external challenges and variables have increased significantly, the domestic structural adjustment pains continue to appear, the economic operation has been stable with changes and slowing down, and downward pressure has increased. The next step is to further deepen reforms and promote high-level opening up. The dividends of reform and opening up will continue to be released. All regions and departments must strengthen the implementation of the "six stability" policy, and the policy effects will continue to appear.

Mao Shengyong said that the current economic growth target of about 6.5% for the year is accomplished with conditions, ability and confidence. In addition, next year’s economic operation will face external uncertainties, but we also have a lot of resilience and certainty. We hope that our resilience and our advantages can well hedge external pressures.

Economic growth of 6.7% in the first three quarters

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, preliminary calculations show that China's gross domestic product (GDP) was 65,089.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% at comparable prices. Calculated in nominal prices, the year-on-year increase was 9.8% (excluding prices), reflecting the overall stability of the economy.

The main economic indicators such as industry, consumption and investment are also relatively stable. In the first three quarters, the national industrial value added above designated size increased by 6.4% year-on-year in real terms. The growth rate was 0.3% lower than that in the first half, but still higher than 6%. In the same period, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 27.4299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than that in the first half of the year. In the same period, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,844.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The growth rate was 0.6 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year, and 0.1 percentage points higher than that from January to August. Fixed asset investment was picking up.

Mao Shengyong pointed out that the pattern of economic stability in the first three quarters has not changed, the momentum of progress continues to develop, and new forces continue to grow. In the first three quarters, looking at macro indicators such as growth, employment, prices, income, and international payments, the economy has maintained an overall stable and steady progress.

The economic structure continues to be optimized and adjusted. From the perspective of the industrial structure, the ballast function of the service industry continues to be consolidated. In the first three quarters, the added value of the service industry increased by 7.7%, maintaining a relatively fast growth, and its contribution to economic growth reached 60.8%, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year. In the first three quarters, the tertiary industry accounted for 53.1% of GDP, an increase of 0.3% over the same period last year. In addition, the industry is accelerating its progress towards mid-to-high end. From the perspective of demand structure, the fundamental role of consumption continues to increase. In the first three quarters, the contribution of consumption to economic growth reached 78%, an increase of 14% over the same period last year. The investment structure is also improving. The growth rate of manufacturing investment has accelerated for six consecutive months, and the growth rate of private investment has remained at a relatively fast level of over 8%. At the same time, we have also seen that the quality and efficiency of economic operations have continued to improve.

It is worth noting that the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas has dropped and the employment situation has remained stable. In September, the surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns across the country was 4.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the same month of the previous year. The surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 4.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In the same month of the previous year, it decreased by 0.1 percentage point. In the first three quarters, more than 11 million new jobs were created in cities and towns, and the target and tasks for the year were completed one quarter in advance.

The implementation of the "six stability" policy must be strengthened

According to the current situation, the economic growth rate of about 6.5% for the whole year of this year is not a big problem. However, from the data of September and the third quarter, the economy may continue to slow down in the fourth quarter, and another 6.5% growth will be achieved next year. There are difficulties in speed, and for this, a new comprehensive response is needed in the next step.

"At the same time, we have also seen that the economic operation is indeed stable and has changed. Where is this change? The external environmental variables of China's development are indeed increasing." Mao Shengyong said, for example, the momentum of world economic growth in the first three quarters has slowed. The trend of world trade expansion has also slowed down, including some emerging economies facing more difficulties. Recently, we have seen large fluctuations in the international financial market. China’s economy is becoming more and more deeply integrated into the world. my country’s total economic output ranks second in the world. External environmental variables are increasing. Sino-US economic and trade frictions are also uncertain. This will add uncertainty to the stable operation of our economy. There is downward pressure.

Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, pointed out that the current and future economic downward pressure is a consensus, because the impact of trade protectionism adopted by the United States for a period of time and next year may increase its impact on the economy. The expansion of domestic demand should be taken as the main response measure. To this end, fiscal and monetary policies should be appropriately relaxed, and the implementation of reform measures should be accelerated.

At the same time, the long-term factors affecting China's economic slowdown in the future also need to be paid attention to. For example, the accelerated aging, the new elderly population may be close to 10 million every year; the decline in the savings rate will affect future investment.

Although China's economy faces many uncertainties, it must be noted that there are also many deterministic factors in domestic economic development. For example, China's economy is relatively resilient and the fundamentals of economic operation are relatively good. Mao Shengyong pointed out that in the next step, we must further deepen reforms and promote high-level opening up. The dividends of reform and opening up will continue to be released. This is also certain. All regions and departments increase the implementation of the "six stability" policy, and the effect of the policy will continue to appear. This is also certain. Therefore, although we are facing pressure from external uncertainties, we must strive to use these domestic certainties to effectively hedge the effects of external uncertainties and maintain a stable economic development trend.

Su Jian, executive deputy director of the Economic Institute of Peking University, told reporters that the next step is to accelerate the implementation of reforms. Some of the existing reform policies have not been fully implemented, or the implementation is not strong enough, and the reform dividend needs to be fully released.